We are pleased to present the latest editions of the Economic Monitor and the Market Monitor from Dynamic Funds Economics, prepared by Chief Economist Dr. Martin Murenbeeld and Senior Economist William Tharp; a division which provides independent analysis and research to retail and institutional interests from across the globe.
Dynamic Funds Economic Monitor
The Canadian and US economies continue to do okay, with the pace of growth momentarily above trend. In our forecasts earlier this year we had a Fed rate hike around mid-2015, but we removed it last month. The expected decline in inflation was a key reason for scrapping the rate hike, but there are additional reasons for not forecasting a rate increase next year. The global economy is weak. European growth is very meagre, which has forced the ECB into quantitative easing in the hope of avoiding Japan-style deflation. China is struggling with the effects of credit bubbles and financial speculation in everything from commodities to real estate. Meanwhile, Japan is officially back in recession; third-quarter growth failed to rebound after the VAT-induced decline in second quarter growth and inflation is likely to fall back to 1% despite various policy measures that increased headline inflation.
Dynamic Funds Economic Monitor - November 2014
Monthly Market Snapshot
Ladies and Gentlemen, Welcome to 2015
2014, particularly the latter four months of the year, was a fairly up and down period for Canadian stocks, as the S&P/TSX Composite TR index posted a 10.6% gain once the dust had settled. This upward push came despite the fact that the two of the three biggest components of the benchmark – energy and materials – underperformed the broader index, while financials, the final of the three biggest sectors by weight, only marginally outperformed the benchmark.
Monthly Market Snapshot - January 2015
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Scotiabank's Global Forecast Update
Scotia Economics provides clients with in-depth commentary regarding the factors shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, currency and capital market trends, commodity and industry performance, as well as monetary and public policy issues.
New Year, New Outlook, New Risks
Global growth should average 3.3% in 2015, incrementally better than last year’s 3.2% advance. The lack of traction reflects largely offsetting developments. The cash flow boost to consumers and businesses associated with the over 50% slide in the price of crude oil since mid-2014, and the improving performances in a number of countries, most notably the U.S., should reinforce stronger economic momentum internationally. At the same time, production and capital spending cutbacks in many oilproducing countries around the world, the continuing slowdown in China, the restraint underway in a number of structurally weak nations and budgetary-challenged jurisdictions, as well as the increased volatility in financial markets, will drag on growth.
Scotiabank Global Forecast -January 8, 2015