Director, Private Client Group
Senior Investment Advisor HollisWealth
A division of Scotia Capital Inc Office: (905) 336-8600 Toll Free: 1 (800) 336-8606
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Economic Monthly Reports
2015 Economic and Market Outlook Series
Outlook on Canadian Real Estate - Tom Dicker, Portfolio Manager, 1832 Asset Management L.P.
We are pleased to present the latest editions of the Economic Monitor and the Market Monitor from Dynamic Funds Economics, prepared by Chief Economist Dr. Martin Murenbeeld and Chantelle Schieven; a division which provides independent analysis and research to retail and institutional interests from across the globe.
Dynamic Funds Economic Monitor
Financial Markets Overview
Equity markets have recovered somewhat in recent weeks, after the sharp correction in August-September. This underscores the importance of investors keeping their focus on the medium/long term (and not overreacting to the unpredictable “corrections” that come along).
US economic data have been more subdued in recent weeks, which shifted expectations regarding the timing of a Fed rate hike into 2016. This shift also helped equity markets and, indeed, the price of gold. However, the October 28th Fed statement implied that the December date for a rate hike remained very much in play (which compliments our thinking – see this page last month). The initial estimate of 2015-Q3 GDP growth came in at 1.5%, but household consumption was a relatively robust 2.2% – and should not discourage the Fed from hiking rates in December. Dynamic Funds Economic Monitor - October , 2015
Monthly Market Snapshot
The most tangible way in which the typical Canadian interacts with interest rates is through what is paid on his or her mortgage. And anyone who has renewed their fixed rate mortgage recently, or who has a floating rate mortgage, is probably paying the lowest (or close to it) mortgage rate they have ever paid. Interest rates matter because they dictate borrowing costs and generally have an inverse relationship to many asset types.
Fixed rate mortgages are tied to government of Canada bond yields and floating rate mortgages are linked to the prime rate of the lending institution, which is tied to the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. Low mortgage rates come as a result of the fact both of these are bouncing along the floor of where they’ve been historically. When we say “historically”, we are not talking about since the start of the financial crisis or since you bought your house or even since your grandparents bought their first house. What we are saying is that interest rates today near the lowest they have been going all the way back to ancient Mesopotamia - the cradle of civilization – 5,000 years ago.
The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe are reliable, but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed have not been approved by and are not those of HollisWealth. This website is not deemed to be used as a solicitation in a jurisdiction where this HollisWealth representative is not registered.
Scotiabank's Global Forecast Update
Scotia Economics provides clients with in-depth commentary regarding the factors shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, currency and capital market trends, commodity and industry performance, as well as monetary and public policy issues.
U.S.A. Versus R.O.W.
The global economy remains highly imbalanced. The U.S. economy is gradually moving to a higher and more sustainable growth trajectory that is driven by domestic demand. In contrast, much of the rest of the world's economies are moving to lower and less sustainable growth trajectories as a result of the reliance on external demand.
To see the November Global Forecast featuring Our 2017 Forecast, click the link below.