Director, Private Client Group
Senior Investment Advisor HollisWealth
A division of Scotia Capital Inc Office: (905) 336-8600 Toll Free: 1 (800) 336-8606
Economic Monthly Reports
2015 Economic and Market Outlook Series
Outlook on Canadian Real Estate - Tom Dicker, Portfolio Manager, 1832 Asset Management L.P.
We are pleased to present the latest editions of the Economic Monitor and the Market Monitor from Dynamic Funds Economics, prepared by Chief Economist Dr. Martin Murenbeeld and William Tharp, Senior Economist; a division which provides independent analysis and research to retail and institutional interests from across the globe.
Dynamic Funds Economic Monitor
Financial Markets Overview
The global economic outlook has been revised downward in recent weeks by the IMF and OECD, and the G-20 Communique of February 27 called for more policy initiatives to boost growth. (Some policy options are discussed in an essay herewith commencing on page 4.)
Disappointing economic growth, low oil prices, and concerns over the financial/economic stability of China have continued to be major headwinds for North American equity markets. At the time of writing equity markets have rebounded somewhat, as immediate concerns have ebbed. US economic growth in 2015-Q4 was revised upwards to 1.0% and Canadian economic growth surprised by posting a 0.8% rate for 2015-Q4.
As bizarre as the idea of negative interest rates may sound, they are a reality today in parts of the word as five central banks have set their policy rate below zero.
The biggest question that arises from this action is conceptual – how can a central bank institute negative rates? Once the “how” is understood, a host of questions arise, such as; what do negative rates mean for average investors and consumers? Will banks start paying you to borrow money? Conversely, will you have to pay them to hold your savings? Should negative rates be instituted here and are we close to seeing them? This piece addresses the odd case of negative interest rates and attempts to tackle all of these questions.
The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe are reliable, but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed have not been approved by and are not those of HollisWealth. This website is not deemed to be used as a solicitation in a jurisdiction where this HollisWealth representative is not registered.
Scotiabank's Global Forecast Update
Scotia Economics provides clients with in-depth commentary regarding the factors shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, currency and capital market trends, commodity and industry performance, as well as monetary and public policy issues.
Spotlight On Growth
The global economy is still struggling to generate stronger growth. Aggregate demand has yet to revive despite very supportive monetary conditions internationally. World trade volumes lost considerable momentum at the end of last year, with sub-par readings on manufacturing activity and bulk shipping persisting in the opening months of 2016.
Much of the continuing underperformance can be attributed to China's plan to eliminate overcapacity in many of its traditional industrial and manufacturing sectors as it transitions to higher-valued production and service-related output, and the cascading effect on suppliers throughout Asia-Pacific and Latin America. In addition, most commodity-dependent countries and regions are still responding to the collapse in prices, particularly for energy and metals, through sizeable cutbacks in investment and hiring. Structural adjustments are dampening activity globally, and in the emerging market economies in particular. At the same time, the renewed volatility in financial markets, now aggravated by unsettled politics in the U.K. and the U.S., threatens to aggravate the already elevated level of economic uncertainty.